PRECEDE—Predictive Risk Engine for Community Emergency Defense
PRECEDE scores wildfire danger across about 1,857 locations in 11 western states, refreshed around the clock, so the people who protect communities can act before a fire starts, not after.
One engine, three ways to use it. For agencies, the first job is funding: PRECEDE turns its wildfire risk data into the Benefit-Cost Analysis a FEMA mitigation grant needs — the hardest part of the application — so you can move dollars from recovery to mitigation.
Every FEMA mitigation grant needs a Benefit-Cost Analysis that proves the project pays for itself. It is where most applications stall. PRECEDE produces a fundable BCA from its own risk and avoided-loss data.
The grant-readiness service is a fixed fee that typically falls under the federal micro-purchase threshold — so a card-holder can buy it directly, with no competitive bid. The fee is often grant-eligible when structured correctly.
Communities spend far more responding to fires than preventing them. We help you capture federal mitigation money so the spending can shift from after the fire to before it.
Lead program: HMGP Post-Fire — wildfire-specific funding you can pursue now. BRIC is an opportunistic, bigger-ticket lane that runs through your state hazard-mitigation office.
The model is scored against recent fire years it never trained on, which is the test most risk tools skip. It held out the 2024 and 2025 fire years entirely and still flagged most of them, the January 2025 Los Angeles fires included.
PRECEDE watches the fire-prone parts of 11 western states from about 1,857 monitored locations, well below the level of a whole county, around the clock.
Each location gets a single 0–100 risk number that reflects whether conditions have entered the zone where a fire would likely turn destructive.
When a location crosses that line, it surfaces as an alert someone can act on: a score, a place, a trend, and a clear threshold for when to pay attention.
Move dollars from recovery to mitigation. PRECEDE produces the fundable FEMA Benefit-Cost Analysis — the hardest part of a mitigation grant — from its risk data, and the same data gives your team a day or two of warning to preposition before a fire starts.
Mitigation funding →PRECEDE is not a tool for denying coverage. It helps carriers understand where and when risk is concentrated, so they can price and balance their book and keep insuring more people, not fewer. The same lead time supports utility staffing, staging, and shutoff decisions aimed at the places that have actually turned dangerous.
Enterprise →EmberCheck puts the same engine in the hands of the people defending a single property: a home-level risk score, a forecast, and alerts when conditions run high — so you can act before the fire, not after. $19.99/month or $199/year.
See EmberCheck →
